Taking Even Money
“It seems every time
I am dealt a blackjack the dealer has an ace and asks for insurance. I usually
take the “even money” payoff since I automatically get paid regardless of
whether or not the dealer ends up with a blackjack hand. My husband says it’s
wrong to take the even money. Who’s right?
Nothing can be more frustrating to a blackjack player than to get a blackjack hand then seconds later cringe when the dealer’s upcard is an ace. The dilemma that faces every blackjack player in this situation comes next when the dealer asks “insurance anyone?”
What the dealer is actually saying is “would you
like to make a side bet, equal to half your initial bet, that my downcard is a
ten or picture card?” If you make that bet and the dealer ends up with a ten or
picture card in the hole, you would win 2 to 1 on your insurance bet. If the
dealer doesn’t have a ten or picture card, then you lose the insurance bet. In
essence you are making a side bet that the dealer has a blackjack. If he does
you win the insurance bet. If he doesn’t you lose it.
Normally the dealer will ask players if they want to
make the insurance bet every time he has an ace showing. In the case of a
player having a blackjack hand, instead of making the insurance bet, an option
exists whereby that player can tell the dealer he wants ‘even money.” If a
player requests even money, the dealer will pay off the player’s initial wager
on the hand at 1 to 1 and place the player’s cards (the blackjack hand) in the
discard tray. If a player bet for example $10, was dealt a blackjack hand, then
took even money because the dealer shows an ace, that player would
automatically win $10.
So what’s even money got to do with the insurance
bet? Believe it or not, when you take even money when you have a blackjack hand
it will have the same outcome as if you made the insurance option. It’s just
easier and takes less motion by the dealer to immediately payoff a player at 1
to1 than to go through the motions of the player making the insurance bet
(remember the outcome-1 to 1 payoff –is the same whether you take even money or
took insurance on a blackjack hand).
Why do players with a blackjack hand almost always
take even money? It should be fairly obvious why. If you take even money, you
automatically win a sum equal to your original bet. If you decline the even
money, then one of two things could happen. If the dealer ends up with a
ten-value card in the hole, the dealer has a blackjack, which ties your
blackjack hand, and therefore you win nothing (it’s a push). On the other hand,
the dealer could NOT have a ten-value card in the hole in which case you will
be paid 3 to 2 for your blackjack hand. Let’s recap the scenarios for a $10
initial bet.
If you take even money you automatically get paid
$10 (1 to 1 payoff)
If you decline the even money and the dealer has a
blackjack, you win 0.
If you decline the even money and the dealer doesn’t
have blackjack, you win $15 (3 to 2 payoff)
Most players won’t risk not winning something with their
blackjack hand so they take the even money and automatic 1 to 1 payoff. Seems
like the right play to make. In fact, most casino dealers and floor supervisors
will encourage players to take the even money. However, even though you win
money on the hand by taking even money you end up losing. How can this be?
Here’s why.
Statistically, if you have a blackjack and the dealer has an ace up, the dealer will end up with a blackjack about 30.6% of the time. That means 69.4% of the time he won’t have a blackjack. If you refuse the even money, 69.4% of the time you will be paid 3 to 2 and 30.6% of the time you win nothing. In other words the dealer is more likely to NOT have a ten-value card in the hole for a blackjack hand. Overall if you refuse the even money you will win on average at a rate of 1.04 to 1. This is greater than the 1 to 1 payoff you get by taking even money. Therefore, by taking even money, yes you win, but at the same time you are giving back (ie.losing) 4% of your profits back to the casino.
Keep in mind that sometimes when you decline even
money the dealer will have a blackjack and you end up winning nothing. That’s
when you’ll probably regret not taking even money. But this will be compensated
more often with the 3 to 2 payoff when the dealer doesn’t have the blackjack.
On a single insurance or even money decision, when you don’t take even money
you are either going to win at 3 to 2 odds or
push with no win. The average of these two events over time results in a
1.04 to 1 payoff.
The bottom line is that for
the average blackjack player taking even money is not a good deal because over
time it will decrease your profits by 4%. You’ll be the smartest player on the
table when you pass up taking even money regardless of what the other players or
the dealer tell you do it. I know it’s sometimes tough to pass on a sure payoff
especially if you made a big bet when you get the blackjack. But you should be playing blackjack for the
long haul (or don’t play at all). It’s your money and your decision but in the
long run you’ll end up with more money in your wallet when you pass up the even
money proposition.
Henry Tamburin is one of America’s most popular
casino gaming writer and author of 6 best selling books including Blackjack: Take The Money and Run. For a
free catalog of Tamburin’s books and videos call 1-888-353-3234. For more of
Tamburin’s winning advice visit his web site at www.smartgaming.com.